The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to stop a freefall in the AFC following their third loss in a row last week as they hit the highway to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday with Trevor Lawrence questionable with a concussion.
Baker Mayfield is trying to lead the Bucs to a division title and has a great passing matchup this week, but with more passing comes more scramble opportunities, and with a 10-week low on his rushing total, should bettors be backing the veteran’s legs?
I break down the NFL Week 16 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jaguars at Buccaneers on December 24.
Jaguars vs Buccaneers odds
Jaguars vs Buccaneers predictions
Baker Mayfield’s rushing total has closed at 10.5 in every game over the quarterback’s last 10 contests. He’s 4-6 O/U over that stretch but Baker has 51 carries over his 14 games for 152 yards and is running the ball at the highest frequency of his career.
THE BLITZ is calling this one of the best +EV plays of the game. The profitable model has Mayfield for 14.63 yards and only four other defenses allow more QB rushing yards per game than the Jacksonville Jaguars at 24.1 per game.
Lamar Jackson put up an 11-week high of 97 rushing yards last week vs. the Jags, Jake Browning had 22 rushing yards three games ago, and CJ Stroud had a season-high 47 yards the week before that.
This could also be a higher pass-volume spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacksonville is a much better rush defense than a pass defense and the injuries to the secondary (two starters questionable) are areas Tampa can attack with success.
The Bucs are still one of the worst rushing teams in football, ranking dead last in yards per carry at 3.5, so leaning on the pass is probable. There’s also a chance that Lawrence plays and Tampa goes from a favorite to an underdog which should also increase the pass rate in theory.
An increase in pass rate is always good for QB rushing Overs. Scrambling is the biggest volume-getter for yards on the ground and more passes mean more scramble opportunities. Baker has 154 scramble yards on the season over 25 runs and 7.3% of the designed runs.
If his rushing attempts market opens at 2.5, that would be an even better play as low as -135 and one I’d bet up to 3.5 at anything plus money.
My best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 7.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jaguars vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Baker Mayfield Over 7.5 rushing yardsOver 40.5Cade Otton Over 22.5 receiving yards
+425 at bet365
There’s still a chance Lawrence plays and if he does, this total will move closer to 44. I still like this Over even with Beathard as both passing offenses have good matchups with injuries hitting both secondaries.
Cade Otton is coming off a 90% snap share with an 82% route share. His opportunities are always there as he doesn’t come off the field. He has 40+ receiving yards in 50% of his last 10 games so his alternate Overs are in play as well.
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